Possible scenario
Nairobi Cluster Expands
20% Chance
The first death is followed by confirmed infections among healthcare workers or close contacts in Nairobi. Kenya remains functional, but public gatherings, hospitals and transport hubs face tighter controls.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.7%
- Healthcare +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.