Possible scenario
Criminal Pressure Escalates
20% Chance
A less likely but high-impact path is that Trump follows through by pushing DOJ toward criminal process against Anthropic leadership. Even if arrests do not occur, the precedent of using criminal threats against AI executives would weigh on cloud AI providers, model labs, and enterprise software buyers.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -4.0%
- Business Services -1.7%
Tickers
- AMZN-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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