Possible scenario
Courts Force De-Escalation
38% Chance
The most likely path is rapid legal containment because a prior judge already found Anthropic's rights were violated. The White House keeps political pressure on Anthropic, but DOJ avoids testing an executive-jailing threat without clearer evidence tied to the Fable AI outage.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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