Possible scenario
Lula Comeback Prevails
29% Chance
Lula's warning helps reframe the runoff around rule-of-law risk and persuades enough centrist and anti-Bolsonaro voters to return to him. The result is close but certified without a decisive pre-election court intervention.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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