Possible scenario
Flávio Wins Cleanly
36% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro converts his polling lead into a narrow but clear runoff victory. Lula's prosecution warning remains campaign rhetoric, and the Superior Electoral Court does not take action that changes ballot access before Oct. 25.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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