Possible scenario
Courts Enter Campaign
23% Chance
Lula's prosecution threat is followed by visible legal activity involving Flávio Bolsonaro, prosecutors, or the electoral court. The process does not necessarily remove him from the ballot, but it shifts the final campaign week toward institutional confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Energy -0.1%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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