Possible scenario
Diplomatic Standoff
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Trump’s UN declaration becomes another escalation in a diplomatic pressure campaign rather than an immediate trigger for regime collapse. Havana uses the walkout to rally allies, while Washington adds pressure through speeches, sanctions, and coalition-building.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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