Possible scenario
Undercount Case Builds
19% Chance
The first full report draws attention to the difference between registered deaths and people still missing under rubble, displaced, or unregistered. Human rights organizations use the gap to press for more forensic access, expanded family tracing, and renewed legal scrutiny at the International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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