Possible scenario
Regional Military Escalation
20% Chance
Riyadh treats the coordinated strike as a serious escalation and links it to the recent attacks on oil fields and Riyadh facilities. Saudi air defenses, U.S. Central Command assets, and regional partners increase readiness, raising the perceived risk of wider disruptions to Gulf energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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