Possible scenario
Disorder Escalates Locally
20% Chance
The ban triggers loyalist protests in Portadown and possibly other unionist areas, with sporadic clashes involving the PSNI. The unrest remains geographically contained but increases pressure on Northern Ireland's political institutions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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