Possible scenario
Network Rebuilds Elsewhere
25% Chance
Iran-linked financiers attempt to route payments around the A7 designation through non-dollar channels, informal brokers and commodity settlement. This preserves some sanctions evasion capacity but raises transaction costs and settlement delays.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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