Possible scenario
Iran Escalates Rhetorically
18% Chance
Iran denounces the sanctions and threatens countermeasures, but the base case remains rhetorical escalation rather than direct military action. Markets focus on whether the dispute affects crude exports or Gulf shipping insurance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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