Possible scenario
Seoul Hardens Response
25% Chance
South Korea concludes that Pyongyang's deployment to Russia changes the security equation and expands military support for Ukraine or NATO partners. The move increases defense spending expectations while adding risk premia to South Korean assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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