Possible scenario
Peninsula Tensions Rise
18% Chance
Pyongyang links its Russia deployment to a tougher posture toward Seoul and uses border activity to deter South Korean support for Ukraine. This is the main downside path for markets because it threatens a semiconductor-heavy economy and raises direct military risk in Northeast Asia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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