Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Intensifies
30% Chance
The Kremlin responds to the loss of a major launch site with heavier missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy, rail, and command infrastructure. This raises near-term geopolitical risk but remains below a NATO-Russia crisis threshold.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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