Possible scenario
Smooth Vendor Transition
45% Chance
The Pentagon proceeds with Google and OpenAI as primary AI vendors for classified and operational support work after Anthropic refuses to alter its guardrails. The transition is framed as a procurement continuity decision rather than a broad policy shift, limiting market impact mostly to named AI firms and the technology sector.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- GOOG+2.2%
- MSFT+1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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