Possible scenario
Merz Hangs On
40% Chance
Friedrich Merz remains chancellor because the SPD chooses cabinet stability over forcing an immediate federal crisis. The CDU's 4.9% result leaves him badly weakened, but the Bundestag arithmetic and fear of an AfD surge keep the coalition together for now.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.