Possible scenario
Managed CDU Succession
25% Chance
CDU elites conclude that Merz cannot rebuild the party after the 4.9% result and move toward a controlled chancellor transition. The SPD has leverage to demand policy concessions, but prefers a constructive vote to a snap election that could benefit the AfD.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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