Possible scenario
Managed War Economy
45% Chance
Russia absorbs the higher defense allocation by prioritizing military procurement, higher taxes, and controlled civilian spending rather than an immediate economic break. This is the base case because Moscow has already reorganized fiscal policy around the war and has shown willingness to tolerate inflation and weaker non-defense activity.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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