Possible scenario
Fiscal Strain Emerges
20% Chance
The larger military budget worsens Russia’s inflation and labor shortages, limiting the economic payoff from defense-led growth. The war continues, but investors increasingly question the sustainability of Moscow’s fiscal mix under sanctions and weaker energy revenues.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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