Possible scenario
Escalation And Sanctions
25% Chance
The spending hike is interpreted as a signal that Russia is preparing for heavier operations in Ukraine and a longer confrontation with NATO. Western governments respond with accelerated arms commitments, tighter sanctions enforcement, or new restrictions on Russian energy logistics.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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