Possible scenario
Renewed Crypto Drawdown
18% Chance
Bitcoin fails to validate the post-bear-market recovery thesis and weakens as leveraged long positions are reduced. The selloff remains primarily crypto-specific rather than a full cross-asset stress event.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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