Possible scenario
Broader Compromise Confirmed
20% Chance
Follow-on forensics show the operation compromised more sensitive data than initially reported, including credentials or communications from defense contractors and government-linked personnel. This would turn the story from a spyware disclosure into a material NATO cyber-security incident, but still below the level of a systemic market crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.