Possible scenario
Residual Legal Friction
15% Chance
Although the broad annulment demand is dropped, Bolsonaro-aligned lawyers continue filing narrower complaints over voting-hour extensions and local procedures. Courts are unlikely to overturn the result, but the noise delays full political normalization.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.