Possible scenario
Orderly Lula Transition
55% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro's withdrawal removes the immediate legal threat to the presidential result, allowing the Superior Electoral Court and Congress to proceed with certification. Lula uses the institutional win to reassure markets and foreign partners that the dispute is over.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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