Possible scenario
Bolsonaro Bloc Repositions
20% Chance
Rather than pursue annulment, Flávio Bolsonaro and the Liberal Party redirect the dispute into legislative opposition, state-level organizing, and media messaging. This keeps polarization high but avoids an immediate institutional crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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