Possible scenario
Narrow Guidance Path
20% Chance
The SEC avoids a sweeping one-member final rule and instead issues interpretive guidance or a limited exemptive order. This path reduces legal risk but disappoints parts of the industry that expected a decisive post-CLARITY regulatory reset.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- COIN+3.1%
- +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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