Possible scenario
Political Crisis Deepens
20% Chance
Opposition parties use the Limoges fire and mass arrests to challenge the government’s authority and the austerity budget. The crisis remains below systemic levels but becomes a material euro-area political risk event.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.2%
- Finance -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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