Possible scenario
Gray-Zone Incident Emerges
25% Chance
A limited incident involving communications cables, seabed sensors, or suspicious Russian vessel activity becomes public. The outcome would reinforce the Baltic sabotage template but likely remain below the threshold of armed conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.9%
- Telecommunications -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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