Possible scenario
Saudi Supply Stabilizes
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia sustains elevated crude exports and partially offsets the loss of Iranian barrels after the US blockade. Markets treat the 6 million bpd level as credible near-term supply relief, limiting the war premium in Brent despite continued fighting around the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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