Possible scenario
Hormuz Risk Returns
25% Chance
The Saudi export increase does not fully reassure markets because the physical route for Gulf barrels remains vulnerable. Renewed incidents near the Strait of Hormuz would quickly rebuild the geopolitical premium in crude even if Saudi production capacity remains available.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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