Possible scenario
Renewed Yanbu Oil Risk
20% Chance
Despite the lifted alert, the Houthis may try to reassert deterrence by striking Yanbu's energy infrastructure again. Even a limited disruption would matter because Yanbu is a strategic Red Sea refining and export hub.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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