Possible scenario
De-escalation Holds
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia's decision to lift the Yanbu alert suggests authorities believe the immediate missile or drone threat has eased. Air-defense readiness remains elevated, but the most likely path is a short lull after Saudi strikes in Yemen and Houthi signaling.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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