Possible scenario
Controlled Military Exchange
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continue tit-for-tat actions, but both sides avoid a large strike on core oil infrastructure. This keeps geopolitical risk elevated without producing a major supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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