Possible scenario
Coalition Containment Holds
29% Chance
The interception becomes a contained security event rather than a successful seizure. U.S., U.K., French, and Omani assets expand escort coverage east of Hormuz, reassuring traders that commercial flows can continue at higher but manageable insurance costs.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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