Possible scenario
Republican Hold Persists
35% Chance
The Democratic polling surge fades as Republican donors, the RNC, and national conservative groups concentrate resources in Texas. Paxton and Abbott remain vulnerable but benefit from partisan fundamentals and late consolidation among GOP voters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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