Possible scenario
Democratic Sweep Materializes
22% Chance
Cain's warning proves accurate as GOP weakness around Ken Paxton, Gov. Greg Abbott, and downballot races becomes self-reinforcing. Democratic turnout in the suburbs, Hispanic areas, and major metros overwhelms the GOP's historical statewide advantage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Finance -0.5%
- Utilities -0.5%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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