Possible scenario
Summit Delayed, Talks Continue
15%
0.0%
The parties keep the process alive but cannot finalize attendance, agenda or sequencing by Nov 10. A delay is credible because the summit format must bridge U.S. pressure for a deal, Ukraine’s refusal to cede Donbas and Russia’s demand for maximal concessions.
What it moves
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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