Possible scenario
Republicans Defend House
42% Chance
The $94 million summer quarter reinforces the view that Speaker Mike Johnson and the Congressional Leadership Fund have enough resources to protect the narrow Republican House majority. Heavy outside spending helps the GOP offset Democratic candidate-level fundraising in suburban and exurban battlegrounds.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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