Possible scenario
Race Stays Toss-Up
18% Chance
The CLF haul confirms Republican financial strength but does not by itself settle the House outlook. Democratic fundraising, candidate quality, and district-level fundamentals keep control of the chamber genuinely uncertain into the final weeks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.