Possible scenario
Inflation Cools Slowly
30% Chance
Inflation remains above the BoE's comfort zone but does not accelerate enough to force a near-term rate increase. The MPC keeps a restrictive bias while waiting for more evidence from wages, services prices and household demand.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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