Possible scenario
Administration Digs In
27% Chance
Trump and senior aides may treat the outcry as partisan opposition and continue the ad campaign, arguing the spots are government communications rather than electioneering. That would raise governance uncertainty, but the immediate market effect would likely remain modest unless the fight spreads to funding or courts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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