Possible scenario
US Military Escalation
22% Chance
Washington rejects Iran's concessions list and shifts to coercive reopening through escorts, mine-countermeasure operations, and limited strikes on launch sites or coastal batteries. The outcome depends on whether Tehran absorbs the action or retaliates against US forces and Gulf infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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