Possible scenario
Temporary Reopening Deal
38% Chance
Iran and the United States use the four-to-five-day window to accept a narrow, face-saving arrangement brokered by Oman, Qatar, or Switzerland. The deal does not resolve sanctions or nuclear issues, but it reopens shipping lanes under naval deconfliction procedures and pauses further strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.6%
- Industrials +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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