Possible scenario
Deadline Gets Extended
30% Chance
Neither side grants the major concessions Iran demanded, but both avoid forcing an immediate military decision. Hormuz traffic remains constrained, negotiators continue indirect talks, and markets price a lingering but not yet catastrophic disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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