Possible scenario
Targeted Sanctions Tighten
42% Chance
The United States, European Union, and United Kingdom use the Filin sighting and component evidence to expand targeted export-control enforcement. This is the most likely path because Western governments have repeatedly preferred broker listings, distributor guidance, and customs actions over sweeping new semiconductor bans.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Business Services +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- ARW-1.0%
- AVT-0.8%
- TXN-0.6%
- ADI-0.5%
- LMT+0.5%
- RTX+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.