Possible scenario
Gray Market Persists
28% Chance
Russia keeps sourcing foreign electronics through layered resellers, cryptocurrency payments, and transshipment routes despite additional scrutiny. This outcome remains plausible because prior export controls reduced direct access but did not fully stop components from reaching Russian weapons systems.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology -0.4%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- LMT+0.8%
- COIN-0.7%
- RTX+0.7%
- NOC+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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