Possible scenario
China Link Deepens
18% Chance
Further analysis finds that Russia has substituted more Chinese-origin components or China-based trading channels into the Filin supply chain. This would intensify US-China export-control friction, but the immediate market impact would likely remain sector-specific unless governments announce broader restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- TXN+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.