Possible scenario
Russian Rerouting Adapts
20% Chance
Russian exporters and intermediaries respond by changing vessel flags, managers, insurers, and ship-to-ship transfer points. This reduces the practical effect of Japan's designations and keeps Russian barrels and LNG moving through less transparent networks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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