Possible scenario
Targeted Enforcement Prevails
45% Chance
The executive order is implemented mainly through USCIS, DHS, and Labor Department enforcement rather than a new headline fee. This is the most likely path because the administration can pursue audits, site visits, duplicate-registration reviews, and fraud referrals without immediately testing the same legal theory that failed in court.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -1.1%
- Technology -0.4%
- Healthcare -0.3%
Tickers
- CTSH-1.9%
- AMZN+0.2%
- MSFT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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